Birmingham, May 3 (The Conversation) The greatest comeback since Lazarus. So went some of the sentiment around novice politician Mark Carney's near-miraculous victory in the April 28 Canadian federal election.

His Liberal party was on political life support in January. The highly unpopular Justin Trudeau had just resigned and, after nearly 10 years in office, the governing centrist Liberals seemed destined for an historic defeat. The Conservative party led by over 20 points in opinion polls and looked certain to enter government.

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Then came a two-part salvation. First was the arrival of Carney as Liberal leader. Without a previous political record, Carney avoided the contamination attached to the Liberals' time in office.

The other part of the revival came courtesy of President Donald J Trump, who repeatedly referred to the outgoing Trudeau as “governor” and mused continually, including on the day of the Canadian election, about his desire for Canada to become the “51st state” of the United States. Applying tariffs on Canadian goods made it clear that the threat was real and triggered a dramatic nationalistic reaction on the part of Canadians.

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They began avoiding travel to the United States and boycotting American products. Carney rode such sentiments to a near majority parliamentary victory and the highest Liberal share of the popular vote at the federal level since 1980.

But are there lessons from the Carney triumph that might aid other struggling leaders, such as British prime minister Keir Starmer? Having achieved a large majority less than a year ago, Labour has lost a safe seat to Reform in a byelection and languishes in the polls.

Whereas Carney and the Liberals have been vocal in their resistance to Trump, Starmer and Labour have followed a path of obsequiousness, even to the point of avoiding criticism of the US president over threats to Canada. Instead of speaking out, Starmer has managed Trump by flattering him through an invitation for a second state visit.

Starmer and Labour seem determined to curry favour with Trump to gain a free trade agreement with the US. Setting aside the value of such an agreement, given how Trump has simply ignored the deal his first administration struck with Mexico and Canada in 2020, the toadying appears to have all been for naught.

According to the Guardian, the Trump administration has made a free-trade agreement with the UK a second or third level priority. So much for the “special relationship”.

This apparent disinterest would imply that Starmer and Labour have little to risk by taking a more aggressive stance. Playing a more overtly nationalistic card might play well with more centrist voters in the UK, as it did in Canada. There is clear evidence from opinion polls of growing unhappiness with the United States among Britons, along with increasing disdain for the idea of the “special relationship”.

Such an approach might undermine some of the momentum that the Reform Party has enjoyed over the last few months. Tying Nigel Farage to the Trump administration might be especially effective given his close connections over several years to the president.

Certainly, tarring your opponent as a mini-Trump represented an effective tool by the Liberal campaign against the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who not only lost the election but also was defeated in his own constituency after having won there seven previous times.

A case could be made that the Canadian situation has a uniqueness that isn't necessarily transferrable elsewhere. There is, for instance, a long history in the country of anti-Americanism as a potent political force, especially on the left of the political spectrum.

Efforts to distance Canada from the US culturally and intellectually in the 1960s and 1970s were popular and led to a cultural flourishing. And elections in 1911 and 1988 were fought directly over the issue of free trade with the United States.

Major public concerns over American domination of Canada were key in both contests, even though the latter election was a victory for the Progressive Conservative party that advocated free trade with the US.

Additionally, a significant element of Canadian identity outside of Quebec has long been defined in oppositional terms to Canada's southern neighbour.

Even though the Canadian example may be unique, other countries are certainly looking towards it. Taking an aggressive stance against Trump tariffs appears to be helping the Labour party in Australia. It may also have an impact in New Zealand. At this point, with Starmer and Labour struggling in troubled polling waters, Trump may be the best political lifeline available. (The Conversation)

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